Tag Archives: election 2010

The Politics of 2011-2012

CHRIS PUMMER: After last night’s resounding electoral defeat for Democrats at the hands of Tea Party-fueled Republicans, pundits are starting to speculate what it means for the 2012 election cycle.

While I’ve maybe got a few ideas, right now I’d like to caution observers that road from here is going to be very unpredictable. Continue reading

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HOWARD MEGDAL: While Dan speaks to the relative inconsequential nature of Rich Iott’s predilection for dressing as a Nazi in the grand scheme, the most interesting aspect of this controversy is the political calculation by John Boehner. By agreeing to campaign for him on the final weekend of the 2010 midterms, what exactly is Boehner saying? Continue reading

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Election 2010 Predictions

HOWARD MEGDAL: Senate: Republicans gain six seats.
Notable: Reid wins, Manchin wins handily, Buck wins, Toomey wins, Boxer wins by double-digits. McAdams loses heartbreaker to Miller. Murkowski third.

CHRIS PUMMER: I’m not sure about the Senate. I’ve been championing Harry Reid’s ability to survive, Joe Sestak’s ability to come back, and I know Russ Feingold outperformed the polls pretty solidly six years ago. Only Reid doesn’t look like a dubious position right now.

Republicans gain 5 Senate seats (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin by a smaller margin than the polling indicates, and one of CO/IL/NV/PA). Alaska will not yet be decided by the time the next Congress is sworn in.
Continue reading

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Bigger Speaker Worries: Pelosi or Boehner?

HOWARD MEGDAL: Sure, the Tea Partiers could turn on John Boehner. But Nancy Pelosi has faced the far more sustained attacks this election season, and faces significant problems with holding on to the Speaker’s gavel next January. Continue reading

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Polling Anomalies and Election 2010

JESSICA BADER: A huge part of the argument that Democrats will be shellacked in the midterm elections is the “enthusiasm gap.” It’s a plausible scenario. It also just might be dead wrong.

HOWARD MEGDAL: I’ll be honest: this began as a discussion on why the skeptics of polls around this time are usually unduly optimistic members of whatever party is about to get shellacked. The cell phone phenemenon is a great example- have that many people really purchased cell phones between 2008, when the polling was quite good, and 2010? Continue reading

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A Meek Endorsement: Enough for Crist to Win?

HOWARD MEGDAL: I guess it doesn’t matter- it isn’t happening. Kendrick Meek is clearly in this race until the end. With early voting already underway, Bill Clinton stumping for him, President Obama recording ads- Meek is not leaving this race.

And that’s a shame, since his exit is likely the only way a Democrat wins this seat.

JESSICA BADER: I’ve seen the poll numbers. My nostrils still flare a bit when I think of the special election in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District a few months ago, where a Republican won a D +11 district with less than 40% of the vote because neither of the Democrats would drop out of the race and throw their support to the other. So why do I disagree so strongly with Howard on this? Continue reading

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Christine O’Donnell: A Witch? You? Me?

HOWARD MEGDAL: Christine O’Donnell’s revelatory advertisement advising that “I am you” cast a bright and often unforgiving light on my life to date.

MOLLY SCHOEMANN: If there’s one thing I am not, it’s politically savvy. Still, even I knew there was something fishy about Christine O’Donnell’s recent “I’m Not A Witch” ad. For one thing, it’s a given that any time a politician stares directly into a camera and makes a definitive statement, from “I am not a crook” or “I didn’t have sexual relations with that woman” to “Read my lips”—you know that the truth is going to actually be the opposite of what they’re saying. Continue reading

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Breaking Down the Generic Ballot, Tax Cuts

JESSICA BADER: With the midterm elections less than six weeks away, each new batch of polls brings on another round of analysis, and those digging through the numbers try to make the polls fit their analysis just as much as…

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Primary Night Extravaganza

HOWARD MEGDAL: With Christine O’Donnell’s victory in Delaware, the prospects for a Republican Senate takeover became bleaker. But the real story is that it provides yet another example of just how dangerous this path is long-term for the Republican Party in the years that follow 2010.

JESSICA BADER: The stunning outcome of the Republican gubernatorial primary in New York appears similar on the surface to what happened in Delaware, but the likely effects are very different. This was not a case where one candidate was a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and the other stood little chance to do so – Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo was almost certain to win in November no matter which Republican candidate prevailed tonight. However, the victory of Carl Paladino, a Buffalo-area businessman best known for forwarding offensive e-mails and proposing that prisons be converted into dormitories for welfare recipients, by a nearly two-to-one margin over former Representative Rick Lazio could cause problems for the GOP further down the ticket – something of a problem when the party is targeting multiple House seats held by Democrats and trying to win back the state senate. Continue reading

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Obama’s Second Stimulus and Election 2010

HOWARD MEGDAL: On Friday morning, President Obama displayed more than just the strong grasp of the facts involved regarding the critical issues in American life today. He made it clear, in language crisper than previously deployed, that there is a strong case for keeping the House and Senate in Democratic hands.

CHRIS PUMMER: While the electoral math might be a simple as bad economy = kick the incumbent bums out, it might give a lot of independent voters pause if they aren’t sure that swallowing the bitter medicine the GOP is offering won’t really cure the illness — and might just make it worse. Continue reading

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