NL East Predictions
HOWARD MEGDAL: When I set out to write this piece originally, last week, the Phillies looked to me like the clear favorites in the NL East. And even today, six games behind Atlanta and three behind the Mets, that Phillies team would still be a pretty good bet to make up the ground.
But that Phillies team no longer exists. Chase Utley and Placido Polanco are injured, and the implications for the division are immense.
Suddenly, the Phillies will need to make up a six-game deficit and overtake two teams without their best player in Utley, and a key contributor in Polanco. That would hurt any team, but with the primary replacements for the two Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs, the dropoff is particularly steep.
So if the Phillies are not around to take advantage of any slip-ups by New York or Atlanta, who is the new favorite?
The Braves have played .500 ball for the past few weeks, with Troy Glaus reverting to form as injury-prone. But the return of Jair Jurrjens means that Atlanta has more depth in both the rotation and bullpen, while Nate McLouth and Jason Hayward should return before long as well.
The Mets will clearly add the best player of anyone in the division, assuming he is healthy, in Carlos Beltran. But with Cliff Lee seemingly destined for points Cincinnati or Minnesota, the pitching is one injury from catastrophe- by which I mean, of course, John Maine/Oliver Perez as pitchers to count on in 2010.
Both Atlanta and New York are far from perfect teams- but it looks here like the Braves have more margin for error. Someone is going to steal this division, apparently, as the Phillies had the most talent in the National League, but apparently, have the luck of the 2009 Mets.
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