Mike Huckabee: Frontrunner?

HOWARD MEGDAL: If the Republicans were most concerned with who would be the best fit for the 2012 nomination, Mike Huckabee, the talented politician, would be a good choice. However, the reality on the ground is that Huckabee hasn’t made peace with the Grover Norquist Wing of the party, and his PAC fund, just like his 2008 campaign, shows he won’t be able to raise the funds to compete properly.

For the first six months of 2009, Huckabee’s HUCKPAC raised just over $300,000. To put that in perspective, Sarah Palin’s SARAHPAC was rocked by indecision, poor organization and lack of mission- and took in $732,867 during that time. Mitt Romney’s PAC took in nearly $2 million over the same span.

So why isn’t the money flowing to Huckabee, a conservative Republican with mass appeal? He simply hasn’t made peace with the Club for Growth wing of the party. From Ben Smith’s superb Politico piece:

“But some attitudes don’t change. Huckabee met in the spring with Pat Toomey, then the president of the Wall Street-backed Club for Growth, which had attacked him during the 2008 campaign for raising taxes in Arkansas.

“It wasn’t very productive,” he said of the meeting. “I realized then that these guys are just what I thought they were — they’re pay for play, and they do it anonymously on behalf of people who don’t want to be known as the funders of these hit operations. I find that repulsive.””

As long as Huckabee feels that way, and doesn’t repress it McCain 2008-style, there will be too much institutional revulsion to keep him from getting the Republican nomination.

CHRIS PUMMER: Huckabee has to be considered the favorite for the Republican nomination in 2012 — if he chooses to run. And the Huckster has more than the polls going for him.

As it is, the polls are a good starting point for Huckabee. Among the big names being floated for the nomination, the former Arkansas governor is the most liked and viewed as the most qualified by Republicans and among all voters.

Unless the primary schedule is rearranged, Huckabee is positions to gain early momentum if he can repeat his Iowa win from 2008. Considering the groundwork he put down during that campaign, there no reason he shouldn’t be the favorite to win that state’s delegates again.

Raising money was a problem for the Huckabee campaign during his last run as he’s never been a favorite of the GOP money men. But money isn’t everything.

Not only did Huckabee score his big Iowa win despite being vastly outspent by second-place finisher Mitt Romney, but you only need to examine the 2008 field to see another example of the money coming home late in the race. John McCain, the eventual nominee, floundered in the fundraising department for most of 2007. Even after his New Hampshire primary win, the dollars were slow to find his coffers.

He nonetheless prevailed because he had enough money to stay in the race, and that’s not a daunting financial threshold for Huckabee to cross. That his PAC raised as much as it did the first half of the year with the man himself focused on his radio, television and book deals, should be proof that he can haul in enough cash to mount a credible campaign.

And when push comes to shove, if Huckabee looks like he can be a winner, the money will get behind him. McCain was loathed by Grover Nordquist and company going into last year’s primary season. But after the Maverick clinched the GOP nomination, it didn’t stop Nordquist from embracing him.

That Huckabee also represents the best chance for Republicans to win in 2012 means there should be plenty more hugs to go around.

Tags: GOP 2012, Grover Norquist, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 19th, 2009 at 12:01 am and is filed under News & Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.