Santorum 2012?
CHRIS PUMMER: If Republicans are hearing rumblings that Rick Santorum is going to be a stealth presidential candidate in 2012, it’s probably just indigestion from surveying the rest of the potential GOP field.
Can the leadership vacuum in the Republican Party be so strong that Santorum is seriously being sucked into a serious conversation?
Forget for a minute that the last time Santorum ran for office, going for a third term in his Senate seat from Pennsylvania, he got his ass handed to him big time. Big time as in by 18 points, the worst defeat for an incumbent senator in a quarter century; in a state that Republicans might need to capture to win the Electoral College.
Santorum obviously has conservative credibility after decades of comparing gays to child molesters, pimping intelligent design as science and claiming WMDs were found in Iraq. That’s only the tip of the iceberg.
That ultra-conservative stuff might not play in a general election, but is it even enough to win a Republican primary?
While Santorum’s high-wattage crazy might attract a few moths, it’s doubtful to attract a huge segment of the GOP base when brighter political lights like Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin or even Sam Brownback wait for conservatives to swarm to them.
It’s probably going to far to say Santorum is a credible contender in 2012 because of some trips to early primary states. After all, Alan Keyes will be buying a bus ticket to Iowa. And Dan Quayle has been mysteriously silent on his plans.
But should the Santorum talk get serious, make sure you have a the super-sized popcorn ready. Not only can you kick back while Republicans give us plenty of laughs, but the oversized bucket might be handy if you feel like barfing.
HOWARD MEGDAL: Where I think those skeptical of Rick Santorum’s chances of being a factor go wrong is when they point to two groups within the current Republican Party. While one group is fixated on the extreme elements of what make up the GOP, a far larger, rational group understands that Sarah Palin/Rick Santorum politics is the quickest way to a massive electoral defeat.
The problem is, that group doesn’t come close to composing a majority within the Republican Party.
2008 continues to be trotted out as some kind of indicator. For most observers outside the party, John McCain represented the most logical general election pick. But keep in mind that McCain’s only competition consisted of Mitt Romney, who was worse to many GOP die-hards for a number of reasons, and Mike Huckabee, who had a combination of money problems- inability to raise any, and an unfortunate moderate record spending it while he was Governor of Arkansas.
Come 2012, buttressed by McCain’s defeat, the GOP will be looking for a true believer. Right now, that person appears to be Sarah Palin. But should she disqualify herself in some way (no, that quitting thing doesn’t seem to have done the trick), who will step forward? Huckabee and Romney are the big names from 2008- they couldn’t win the nomination even without a true believer in the fight.
There’s still time for others to step forward- the sage Christian Heinze of GOP 12 usually mentiones Senator John Thune at this point- but Rick Santorum represents just the kind of Republican that is most popular within the party right now. He’s got some real liabilities, but we would be mistaken to dismiss his candidacy out of hand as a Dan Quayle redux. This is not George H.W. Bush’s GOP.